From the ICCT, ironically under the subtitle "Addressing misuse of data in the EV debate":
> One common claim is that electric vehicles have higher emissions associated with battery manufacturing. While manufacturing emissions for battery electric cars are roughly 40% higher than for gasoline cars, the ICCT’s research shows that this initial “emissions debt” is typically offset after around 17,000 kilometers of driving, usually within the first one to two years of use in Europe.
The emissions debt is relative to a new ICE.
In cradle-to-grave emissions, electric cars are much lower than ICE cars in lifetime carbon footprint, often 50% lower.
That doesn't change the fact the replacing a used ICE with a new EV will result in increased overall emissions and increase the net carbon footprint.
> I'd love to see a source that says otherwise. I think you have a bad source for the CO2 emissions of new EV production.
This is a completely uncontroversial fact and no environmental or governmental bodies make the claim which you are putting forward, so I'd rather like to see your sources.
So I'm looking at the given graphs in your linked article and I just don't see how you are coming up with the 12 and 20 year timeframes for payback of EVs.
Just fuzzy eyeballing (I don't see the actual numbers for the manufacturing estimated CO2, just the graph), it looks like ~10% of the lifetime emissions for a new ICE come from manufacturing. That would put the the new EV payback vs used ICE at 4 or 5 years.
At that point, it just sort of depends on how long you hold onto your ICE for.
No, that's to break even with a new EV per the article I posted.
I'd love to see a source that says otherwise. I think you have a bad source for the CO2 emissions of new EV production.