> The payoff period for an EV is anywhere from 15,000 to 25,000mi. The moment any EV crosses that threshold, it becomes better for the environment than the ICE vehicle that you'd otherwise buy.
That's the payoff period for the carbon differential between a new EV and a new ICE, not a new EV and your existing ICE, where the carbon cost of production is already sunk. Hence why the GP commented that keeping your ICE is environmentally better than buying a new EV.
Also note that 15-25k miles is 24-40k km, or 2.4-4 years of the average annual mileage in the EU. That's to break even with a new ICE. To break even with a second hand ICE, it's on the order or 15-20 years, or effectively longer than the useful life of the EV.
> If your used ICE vehicle has 15 to 25,000mi in it, then yeah, replacing it with an EV today is the better choice. It's more a matter of when it will be the better choice.
This claim is simply false. There is no point in the lifetime of a used ICE where replacing it with a new EV will result in reduce overall emissions.
From the ICCT, ironically under the subtitle "Addressing misuse of data in the EV debate":
> One common claim is that electric vehicles have higher emissions associated with battery manufacturing. While manufacturing emissions for battery electric cars are roughly 40% higher than for gasoline cars, the ICCT’s research shows that this initial “emissions debt” is typically offset after around 17,000 kilometers of driving, usually within the first one to two years of use in Europe.
The emissions debt is relative to a new ICE.
In cradle-to-grave emissions, electric cars are much lower than ICE cars in lifetime carbon footprint, often 50% lower.
That doesn't change the fact the replacing a used ICE with a new EV will result in increased overall emissions and increase the net carbon footprint.
> I'd love to see a source that says otherwise. I think you have a bad source for the CO2 emissions of new EV production.
This is a completely uncontroversial fact and no environmental or governmental bodies make the claim which you are putting forward, so I'd rather like to see your sources.
So I'm looking at the given graphs in your linked article and I just don't see how you are coming up with the 12 and 20 year timeframes for payback of EVs.
Just fuzzy eyeballing (I don't see the actual numbers for the manufacturing estimated CO2, just the graph), it looks like ~10% of the lifetime emissions for a new ICE come from manufacturing. That would put the the new EV payback vs used ICE at 4 or 5 years.
At that point, it just sort of depends on how long you hold onto your ICE for.
That's the payoff period for the carbon differential between a new EV and a new ICE, not a new EV and your existing ICE, where the carbon cost of production is already sunk. Hence why the GP commented that keeping your ICE is environmentally better than buying a new EV.
Also note that 15-25k miles is 24-40k km, or 2.4-4 years of the average annual mileage in the EU. That's to break even with a new ICE. To break even with a second hand ICE, it's on the order or 15-20 years, or effectively longer than the useful life of the EV.
> If your used ICE vehicle has 15 to 25,000mi in it, then yeah, replacing it with an EV today is the better choice. It's more a matter of when it will be the better choice.
This claim is simply false. There is no point in the lifetime of a used ICE where replacing it with a new EV will result in reduce overall emissions.