If LLMs are good at writing software, then there's lots of good software around written by LLMs. Where is that software? I don't see it. Logical conclusion: LLMs aren't good at writing software.
Are you trying to make a distinction between writing software vs writing code? LLMs are pretty great at writing good code (a relative term of course) if you lay things out for them. I use Claude Code on both greenfield new projects and a giant corporate mono repo and it works pretty well in both. In the giant mono repo, I have the benefit of many of my coworkers developing really nice Claude.md files and skills, so that helps a lot.
It’s very similar to working with a college hire SWE: you need to break things down to give them a manageable chunk and do a bit of babysitting, but I’m much more productive than I was before. Particularly in the broad range of things where I know enough to know what needs to be done but I’m not super familiar with the framework to do it.
Presumably they are writing the same quality software faster, the market having decided what quality it will accept.
Once that trend maxes out it’s entirely plausible that the level of quality demanded will rise quickly. That’s basically what happened in the first dot com era.
I'm not convinced. Honestly it seems like we're in a market of lemons and I don't know how we escape the kind of environment that is ripe for lemons. To get out requires customers to be well informed at the time of purchase. This is always difficult with software as we usually need to try it first and frankly, the average person is woefully tech illiterate.
But these days? We are selling products based on promises, not actual capabilities. I can't think of a more fertile environment for a lemon market than that. No one can be informed and bigger and bigger promises need to be made every year.