Those numbers multiply, they don't add. Also, some of your numbers are wrong if you look at her post, and others are pretty high: Danielle was a known quantity for VCs from her Twilio days and you can expect she raised her rounds at a premium.
I do the numbers as: .93 (YC) * .95 (500S) * .85 (option pool) * 0.83 (seed1) * .92 (seed2) * 0.86 (seed3) = 0.49
This doesn't account for the Referly->mattermark pivot, which may have led to some restructuring.
I do the numbers as: .93 (YC) * .95 (500S) * .85 (option pool) * 0.83 (seed1) * .92 (seed2) * 0.86 (seed3) = 0.49
This doesn't account for the Referly->mattermark pivot, which may have led to some restructuring.