That discussion gets a number of things wrong and trivializes the odds against the goalkeeper. Any goalie preparing for a match in the sudden death stages of a tournament, like the World Cup [1], would study previous kicks from the opposing players. The players also study goalkeepers past shootouts. So any pattern the goalkeeper chooses to adopt influences the direction of future kicks by opposing players, and vice versa. In other words, if I know that the opposing goalie stays in the center, as a rule, 30% of the time (heck even 10%), there's no way I'm going to shoot down the middle. I'm going to go for the right or left corner to increase my odds.
Going down the middle actually requires more skill than the linked article credits it with. As a player, you'll have to disguise the direction and you'll want to aim for the upper half (if it's too low, the goalie can save with the feet), meaning you could miss and hit the bar or worse, row Z.
The reason goalies don't just stay in the center is that it's more likely that the opposing player would aim for the bottom left/right corners. And if a goalkeeper spent more time in the center, he/she increases the odds further that shots against that particular goalie would go to the bottom left/right corners.
I think the reason most penalty kicks go to the bottom left corner (left from the player's perspective) is that most players are right-footed and they can strike the ball with more force to their left than (with the open foot) to their right. With enough speed and accuracy, a shot to the bottom corner (just sneaking by the post) will beat the goalie even if the goalie dives in the right direction. A shot to the upper corner will always beat the goalie; just can't get there in time. But shots to the upper half of the goal are tough, especially when you consider that the player is very likely suffering from nerves at the time.
1. 32 days, 8 hours and 45 minutes from now, yay!!
Thanks for reviewing the study and offering your take on goalies' behavior. As someone who knows very little about soccer, I was mainly interested in how it might serve as a metaphor for productivity in the workplace. But it was interesting to learn more about the context for the study as well as how goalies and other players anticipatw moves.
That discussion gets a number of things wrong and trivializes the odds against the goalkeeper. Any goalie preparing for a match in the sudden death stages of a tournament, like the World Cup [1], would study previous kicks from the opposing players. The players also study goalkeepers past shootouts. So any pattern the goalkeeper chooses to adopt influences the direction of future kicks by opposing players, and vice versa. In other words, if I know that the opposing goalie stays in the center, as a rule, 30% of the time (heck even 10%), there's no way I'm going to shoot down the middle. I'm going to go for the right or left corner to increase my odds.
Going down the middle actually requires more skill than the linked article credits it with. As a player, you'll have to disguise the direction and you'll want to aim for the upper half (if it's too low, the goalie can save with the feet), meaning you could miss and hit the bar or worse, row Z.
The reason goalies don't just stay in the center is that it's more likely that the opposing player would aim for the bottom left/right corners. And if a goalkeeper spent more time in the center, he/she increases the odds further that shots against that particular goalie would go to the bottom left/right corners.
I think the reason most penalty kicks go to the bottom left corner (left from the player's perspective) is that most players are right-footed and they can strike the ball with more force to their left than (with the open foot) to their right. With enough speed and accuracy, a shot to the bottom corner (just sneaking by the post) will beat the goalie even if the goalie dives in the right direction. A shot to the upper corner will always beat the goalie; just can't get there in time. But shots to the upper half of the goal are tough, especially when you consider that the player is very likely suffering from nerves at the time.
1. 32 days, 8 hours and 45 minutes from now, yay!!