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The interesting thing is that MtGox failing should have zero impact on the USD value of the Bitcoin, particularly if those Bitcoins were stolen and still in circulation.

Indeed, if the hypothesis in http://letstalkbitcoin.com/somethings-not-right-at-gox/#.Uw7... is true, that the Coins were actually LOST from the Cold-wallet because of a EC bug, or other error - then it's possible that losing 740K coins will drive up the value of the remaining coins.



Price depends on the balance of both supply and demand. Even if there are less coins to go around:

* Many existing bitcoin users have had their coins and conventional currency holdings wiped out - and don't have enough money left to buy them back.

* Many users who lost their money would not want to re-invest after getting burned.

* Many potential new casual users will be (rightly) scared away by the news.

It seems to me that even if 6% of the coins are gone, demand could drop more than 6% and still lower the price.




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