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Too-big-to-fail banks is a rational compromise. Some Russians might still remember the failure of Sberbank in 90ths which was a disaster for millions of families (it was the only place to have savings account). You probably cannot imagine what a hell it will be if something like AIG or BoA would allow to fail. At least no government or rich elite could survive such kind of event which very probably will trigger a new period of forceful and bloody wealth redistribution (which is what all revolutions is all about). So govt choices to print its way out of being overthrown.

What Iceland did is subtly different. It lets foreign banks to fail, to bear the consequences of their own risky and stupid investments, and refused to tax its own people to cover foreign bankers loses.

Russians do even "better", they just says to its own folks "sorry, your money is gone" (what can you do?). Sometimes they bother to invent excuses for foreign investors, such as "tax returns" or "market cobditions", but that's very uncommon event. Usually your money just gone and people who did it are "clever guys".)

Notice also how gun ownership indirectly restricts a corrupted government from just plainly robbing it's citizens and promt it to invent some more complicated, less efficient, slow schemes.)

So, nothing to see here.



AIG failed. A team in London trading CDS broke the company. The only reason why the corpse of AIG was kept alive was because AIG owed Goldman Sachs a lot of money. Taxpayer bail-out funds that went to AIG passed straight through and into the bank account of Goldman Sachs.

I recently saw an ad by AIG. It's actually sickening. This company failed. Their assets should have been taken over by good insurance companies who managed their risks properly and did not engage in speculative instruments.

By rewarding bad actors like AIG, moral hazard has been introduced into the markets. Anybody who says they support free markets and capitalism must surely agree that AIG should have been allowed to fail. Yes, it would have caused chaos but that's why lawyers and bankruptcy courts exists.

With politicians picking the winners and losers, it's no wonder lobbying is such a popular business.


AIG should have been allowed to fail, and I don't think it would have caused as much chaos as we actually got. The insurance parts of AIG (regulated by the states) were good, it was the financial products division (regulated by the feds) that double dipped and failed. The states would have dealt with the insurance parts in a better manner than the fed.

GM should have been allowed to go into bankruptcy (given the Feds wanted to kill Buick, the best seller for GM in China) and dig out themselves.

[edit] although Iceland's bank and AIG are totally different scenarios


The insurance part needs to run collaboratively across the whole country at least for the economies of scale to kick in. AIG are still a recognisable brand, and an insurance company of that scale is an incredible asset for a society to have (as are Allianz and AXA, etc...)

Also, large insurance companies are incredibly complex, and take a very long time to build up. It would be very silly to let something like that go under for short-sighted reasons.


>Also, large insurance companies are incredibly complex, and take a very long time to build up. It would be very silly to let something like that go under for short-sighted reasons.

I agree. AIG shouldn't have been so short-sighted. But since they were, they deserve to fail like every other business who doesn't adequately plan for the future.

Oh wait.


"insurance company of that scale is an incredible asset for a society to have"

Not when it means keeping the ill-handled, tax payer killing investment company. It failed and we did a massive disservice to the tax payers by keeping it open.


    > What Iceland did is subtly different. It lets foreign
    > banks to fail, to bear the consequences of their own
    > risky and stupid investments, and refused to tax its own
    > people to cover foreign bankers loses.
What?

Hundreds of thousands of personal depositors across Europe saw their money go poof in Icelandic banks, and their local governments had to pick up the bill. If you are a tax payer in the UK, for example, you got a gigantic FU from the Icelandic government who said "nah, we're not going to bail out our banks, you guys should instead".

You can start with: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008–11_Icelandic_financial_cri...


A simple analogy for you:

You are Engla, the mother of little Johnny. One day, at Johnny's school shows up a little girl called Bjork. Bjork seems to come from a nice family, and you like her Mom, Icelandi.

One day Johnny comes home from school and says Bjork is running some kind of saving scheme, and can he put his pocket money in it? You remember some of the older kids at school doing something similar one time, so you say sure, because besides, Icelandi seems like a nice lady, and you're sure she's got her eye on it.

Johnny gives a bit of his pocket money to Bjork every month, and Bjork's little saving scheme seems to be going really well. Bjork seems a little better dressed these days, and Icelandi is driving a new car. Icelandi is always prattling on at the PTA about how clever little Bjork is.

One day, Johnny comes home in tears. Apparently Bjork showed up at school and said she'd lost track of her accounts, and she no longer had any money to give him. You ring up Icelandi, furious, and ask her to refund little Johnny's money.

"No no", says she, "I think you'll find it's all on Bjork, and not my responsibility". You note she still has her shiny car. Later that day, you find out Icelandi completely refunded Thor, Bjork's little brother, for all the money he had lost, but every other child at school also lost all their money.

Icelandi is hailed on the internet as some kind of popular hero.


I think you're missing part of the story... That part where Ameri's sons/daughters (well only the most privileged ones) went to the Casino on everyone else's dime by obfuscating credit derivatives (Default Swaps) and crashed the entire system.

Seems sort of relevant to an analogy about international finance around this time since the economies are so interconnected.


Not relevant -- in fact obfuscates the issue.

Very American though to insist that the banking crisis was at its heart an American crisis.


You're implying that financial markets are not international and that a huge crisis in one will not cause great strife in another?

The crisis was not 'American' in any way, it was international, as is finance. If one group monkeys with the system it causes issues everywhere (even worse if it is a concerted effort by multiple groups). This is especially true if 'trust' in the system is shot to hell which is what derivatives are built and traded upon.


I am not implying that financial markets are not international. Quite the contrary -- you'll note the parent comment referred to Iceland and the UK -- international.

The parent comment offered a simplifying model, that explained fairly clearly that the government Iceland treated classes of bank creditors(i.e. depositors) differently, and thus it was not fully correct to say either that they were bailed out, or they were let to fail. It all depended on where you sat.

Your comment offered no further elucidation, no further relevant information and strained the analogy past the breaking point.

Credit is built on trust (credo = I believe); derivatives are built on contracts.


Whoa Nelly! That analogy was strained past the breaking point long before I pointed the funny stick at it... That was more or less the point to be honest. Attempting to discuss international finance with a schoolyard analogy seems ridiculously oversimplified in the extreme. (also I like the name "Ameri" for a genderless parent. Sue me!) :)

It sounded like you were attempting to imply that there was ignorance of finance being international (or so it seemed... I could be wrong there) and I was pointing out that was not true.

Also contracts and trust are not opposing ideas nor do they address the same aspect of a thing. I'd venture to say that the entire market is (at least to some extent) based on 'trust' that it is not being heavily gamed and information is not being outright falsified.

Edited: For clarity!


It might be I just needed some coffee ...


Don't we all friend? Don't we all? :)


> Later that day, you find out Icelandi completely refunded Thor, Bjork's little brother, for all the money he had lost, but every other child at school also lost all their money.

It's important to note that Icelandi didn't refund Thor out of her own (Icelandi's) own pocket. Instead, she took the money to reimburse Thor from what remained of the pool of money that Bjork had collected from everyone.

In effect, Thor was reimbursed in full at everyone else's expense.

If you look at a graph of Iceland's GDP, you can see a gently upwardly-curving trend from 1960 thru today, with a massive, abberrant spike sticking up from the trendline from 2004-2008. That's how Icelandi bought her shiny new car.


There is a saying in Tennessee, well its a saying in Texas, I'm sure its in Tennessee too. "If can't spot the sucker after your first half hour at the table you are the sucker."

But really... If bailing out all the foreign investors with the Icelandic public's money (who by and large didn't court the foreign investors in the first place) is the other option... It seems sort of obvious what a country that cares about, or pretends to care about, it's public at large (rather than just its banking elite and financial industry in general) would do.

Not saying it's 'right' or 'wrong' really, but when people invested large amounts of money overseas (into Iceland from wherever) they were gambling and hoping for a gain they couldn't get at home. Sometimes you get burned when you take risks. Sometimes you don't.


People didn't invest large amounts of money overseas. This was not a case of greedy people putting money into some dodgy offshore scheme. That's not what happened at all.

People saved money with Icelandic banks that had opened branches in the UK and the Netherlands. We're not talking about investors - we're talking about depositors, who were supposed to have been protected by a deposit guarantee scheme in the banks' home country.


That is not the story afaik (though I'd happily accept being shown otherwise). There was a great deal of investment 'overseas'. It truly sucks that depositors (who were storing their money in an overseas institution for a better rate) got burned. But I think it is naive to say that the majority of the money lost was simply people storing their paychecks in the bank. The entire finance game was rigged in the first place (as many events have shown) and it seems like everyone was going to get f'd by no fault of their own.

Iceland protecting their public (at the expense of their financial industry) and actually prosecuting (some) of those at fault seems a damn sight better than just having everyone pay out the nose (which happened anyway) and letting gamblers get off with no risk.


>People saved money with Icelandic banks that had opened branches in the UK and the Netherlands.

Weren't many of those branches of Icelandic banks seized/nationalized/prevented from repatriating any capital to Iceland all over Europe ?


I don't think Iceland is popular for screwing the UK and saving themselves, I think they're popular for punishing their bankers, which is something your analogy doesn't seem to make any mention of...


You're right. Little Bjork got grounded for a week. Yay!


As opposed to getting off the hook totally free and having all the other kids in school, who were smart enough not to invest, put in their own lunch money to pay for everyone who was dumb (greedy?) enough to invest.

Edit: How is that fair to the kids who weren't involved and now have less money for lunch?


You appear to be referring to tax payers in the UK and Holland who aren't only footing bills from their own banks, but also Iceland's.


Referring to the Icelandic public who would have been burned as well for the UK/Holland public's investments (at no tangible benefit to their public at large). While the UK/Holland investors, who lost their investments, lost a gamble and their country decided to minimize it for them (Edit: Likely to most of their population's chagrin).

Or perhaps the people investing in the Icelandic banks were not investing? Was this some sort of special investment where you get a better rate than the regional banks without any sort of risk?

When the entire game is rigged, and you're hoping to make a few quid out the side, you're probably going to get totally screwed somewhere, at some point. It totally sucks, I agree, but are you surprised that if someone could insulate themselves they would?

Also there have been consequences for Iceland, particularly in terms of trust, and there won't be a lot of foreign investment in their financial structure anytime soon.


> Or perhaps the people investing in the Icelandic banks were not investing? Was this some sort of special investment where you get a better rate than the regional banks without any sort of risk?

Yes, in fact, that's pretty much it. The infamous Icesave accounts were savings accounts, not investments in the way you'd normally think of them. They were savings accounts that paid higher interest rates than just about anyone else in town (about 6% in the UK), but they still had the equivalent of FDIC protections (for the American readers out there).

The problem is that the Icelandic equivalent to the FDIC had nowhere near enough money to actually pay back all the guaranteed deposits that were lost, so they said, "We'll pay the Icelanders back first and then....hey look! A squirrel!"

The UK and the Netherlands stepped in to cover the losses of their own citizens, but they also took Iceland to the European Court for failing to honor the required guarantees. The importance was somewhat lessened as the assets of the failed Landsbanki bank that had offered these accounts could cover quite a lot of the debt owed to the UK and the Dutch, but yeah, Iceland did sort of screw them. Not that they had much choice, but there you go.


You make it sound like things were all bright and shiny for Bjork, Icelandi and Thor.

In real life they were not.


Except you're not asking Bjorks mom for the money. Rather, like a brute debt collector for the mafia, you go for her extended kin, her great-great-grandmother, an uncle or her 4th cousin, you know, people she's related to but has no contact with (the common public of iceland)

You then ask these people to forgo everything they have worked for the last ten years in order to pay a debt for some spoiled little bitch they have no contact or control over.


the main problem with this analogy is that you have it structured so that Bjork is the "daughter", which is what your whole denouement relies on (where we're supposed to be pissed at Icelandi for not covering for Bjork's mistakes). Bjork and Icelandi are, in a much more accurate version of this story, just friends, and Bjork lives in Icelandi's house. Icelandi is in no reasonable world culpable for Bjork's fuckups.

oh, and as others have mentioned, you also glossed over the fact that Icelandi "repo's all of Bjork's stuff" and effectively "kicks her out of the house".


The decision was about foreign, mostly UK, banks who gave (they call it "invested") money to Icelandic trading desks. These money were denied to pay back taken from Icelandic citizens. Keeping local banks from default on domestic deposits in favor to "foreign investors" (speculators) and letting them to face loses is what the govt of Iceland did, which was a proper decision. Overconfident, high ranked idiots who put funds in an obvious ponzi scheme are those who shall bear the consequences.


Wasn't the gigantic FU more from the Icelandic banks rather than the government?


That's exactly what the OP said though..




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