China is not a developing nation. At that time they were more than wealthy enough to implement the same regulation as other nations and their industry was already developed.
They are not on trend to peak emissions pre 2030. Here is what happens Reliable china emission data takes a long time to verify and collect. So during the times where good data is not available china makes a ton of claims that will not line up with the next emissions study that comes out.
Ok then why does every country scale up their manufactering to make clean tech solutions. Im sure US, EU, India and Africa could use a few more steel mills and some coal plants to power it, we can handwave the emissions if they end up producing clean tech.
China WAS a developing nation in Kyoto 1997, GDP per capital $800, high income $7000.
China WAS a developing nation in Paris 2015, GDP per capita $11000, high income $13000 USD.
China JUST around developed nation in 2025, GDP per capita $14000, high income $14000.
They're on trend to peak emissions last year, see study below for PRC emissions trending down for last 18 months. What happens is we have these things called satellites that can detect emissions live, so you get the PREVIOUS study that confirms they have likely already peaked emissions.
Every country SHOULD scale manufacturing, no other country can scale as much as PRC into making stuff commodity tier. If PRC peak domestic emissions and global clean tech exports displaces 5x more emissions than US oil and produce net global reduction in emissions then that's aggregate emission reduction. If other countries can/wants to do that they ought to. It's not about handwaving emissions, it's about realizing 50% of world are developing, they're going to consume and generate massive amounts of shit, aka poverty alleviation, which is moral good, which will require magnitude increase in power and the most sustainable pathway to that is use as much clean tech as possible, clean tech that net displaces more emissions, which is only possible by making clean tech cheap, which PRC is uniquely able to do.
They are not on trend to peak emissions pre 2030. Here is what happens Reliable china emission data takes a long time to verify and collect. So during the times where good data is not available china makes a ton of claims that will not line up with the next emissions study that comes out.
Ok then why does every country scale up their manufactering to make clean tech solutions. Im sure US, EU, India and Africa could use a few more steel mills and some coal plants to power it, we can handwave the emissions if they end up producing clean tech.