The end result is the same - we have committed for 15 years now that we are pivoting East. And given some of the recent announcements in both the US and China, I think 2028 is going to be a very bleak year.
Edit: can't reply
> In one scenario nato breaks up...
It doesn't matter if we are in a US-China war WHICH HAS BEEN MY AND EVERY NATSEC STAFFER'S POINT SINCE 2009.
We do not care about Russia - you guys can easily handle them yourselves. On the other hand, you guys cannot support us in Kinmen, Luzon, Yonaguni, or Gageodo.
Edit: can't reply
> In one scenario nato breaks up...
It doesn't matter if we are in a US-China war WHICH HAS BEEN MY AND EVERY NATSEC STAFFER'S POINT SINCE 2009.
We do not care about Russia - you guys can easily handle them yourselves. On the other hand, you guys cannot support us in Kinmen, Luzon, Yonaguni, or Gageodo.