If AI tools make expert developers a lot more productive on large software projects, while empowering non-developers to create their own little programs and automations, I am not sure how that would increase the number of people with “software developer” as their full-time job.
It happened with tools like Excel, for example, which matches your description of empowering non-developers. It happens with non-developers setting up a CMS and then, when hitting the limits of what works out of the box, hiring or commissioning developers to add more complex functions and integrations. Barring AGI, there will always be limitations, and hitting them induces the desire to go beyond.
> when hitting the limits of what works out of the box, hiring or commissioning developers to add more complex functions and integrations.
You aren't going to going to do that to AI systems. If, after a couple of weeks you hit the limit of what the AI could do in a million+ LoC, you aren't going to be able to hire a human dev to modify or replace that system for you, because:
1. Humans are going to be needing a ramp up time and that's damn costly (even more costly when there are fewer of them).
2. Where are you going to find humans who can actually code anymore if everyone has been doing this for the last 10 years?
