There was once a blog (maybe it still exists, idk) called Bitfinexed, which researched fraud perpetrated by the Bitfinex/Tether creators. He forecast every month for multiple years an imminent Tether crash, based on the multiple data points and logical conclusions. His prediction was wrong, since Tether org is still alive and out of jail. But this doesn't mean that his chain of arguments and logic was wrong. It was simple a case when fraud and stakes were so big, that through corruptions and some assets infusions, the whole scheme had been saved.

Just because something is a case of "old man yelling at clouds" doesn't mean that underlying logic is always wrong. Sometimes markets can be irrational longer than we expect.