When you print the world's reserve currency, and currency can only be issued as debt, if the world economy grows faster than currency expansion, you'll have real goods/services deflation. It's a weird catch 22, the only way for the $ to remain the reserve currency is for it to continue being issued at a global growth rate, faster than a mature economy like the US can grow. International debts in $ can only be paid back in the same and that's part of the reason for rehypothecation, central bank swaps, and all sorts of other shenanigans. In turn that keeps US long rates artificially low.
The old adage holds true though, it's your problem when you owe the bank a little money. It's the banks problem, if you owe a lot of money. The same is true of inward investment into the US (or Russia or China). Who will end up owning that investment, if relations go south? The country where it exists not the investor, but debt is a negative investment. The Treasury can start issuing unsterilized currency (the trillion $ coin) and debase the currency any time there's a big enough issue, or simply not repay certain bonds. By the time that happens though, the international economy will already be a shambles. Markets end run this sort of stuff.
If it really happens quickly, owning lead (or uranium) will be more important than owning gold. Hopefully, it's gradual and we eek through another few decades of global growth before it does.
The old adage holds true though, it's your problem when you owe the bank a little money. It's the banks problem, if you owe a lot of money. The same is true of inward investment into the US (or Russia or China). Who will end up owning that investment, if relations go south? The country where it exists not the investor, but debt is a negative investment. The Treasury can start issuing unsterilized currency (the trillion $ coin) and debase the currency any time there's a big enough issue, or simply not repay certain bonds. By the time that happens though, the international economy will already be a shambles. Markets end run this sort of stuff.
Milkshake theory is one way it plays out. https://liquidity-provider.com/articles/the-dollar-milkshake...
If it really happens quickly, owning lead (or uranium) will be more important than owning gold. Hopefully, it's gradual and we eek through another few decades of global growth before it does.