The miscalculation was than allies didn't do a parade in Berlin. This way Germans didn't understand how hard they lost WWI, so reparations seemed unfair. That mistake wasn't repeated on WWII.
However hard they lost, repearations would still seem unfair. They still thought their treatment unfair after WWII and all that parading - it took a decade of "training" to convince the Germans that they were the baddies in WWII (and a hell of a lot were never convinced).
Besides the WWI loss they quickly attributed to "internal traitors" (Jews and leftists in general). Parades wouldn't change that.
>If reparations were seen as a fee for remaining independent country they could be very fair given the alternative.
That would be an ever greater insult. Instead of merely unfair, they'd be seen as both unfair and insulting - and threatening ("Our independency is at their mercy? Fuck them at the first opportunity we get!").
That level of insult seemed to work perfectly for Germany and Japan after WW2. Look how polite they are after occupation and giving away half of the country to Russians.
Well, they didn't really give anything away voluntarily.
They lost a war, and got to suffer that as a consequence under postWW2 arrangments (and that was the light option, more like a slap on the wrist: they were also plans to fully deindustrialize and starve them to death https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan ).
And they're building up a liking to fascism and national arrogance again in the last few decades. The Japanese too - which never repented for their attrocities to China either.
The difference between the first and second, is that after the second, the ‘Axis’ states were brought into the global economy. Germany and Japan became famously successful both financially and technologically. The economic growth wasn’t to be sustained in the long run, but it intwined them with global markets. Globalization is arguably the biggest force for peace in the western world, save for nuclear deterrent.
