They always start with the murmurs to prepare public opinion.
And in any case, I think people really are failing to see the equivalence here, and it's scary. The suggestions to "just stop" (translation: "just lose") are actually serious. You'll have an economically crippled Russia with a wounded collective ego. Perfect setup for a rematch. Just like WW1 to WW2. But the normalizers have the majority opinion on their side at this point, and sadly nobody will stop them from making this tragedy a reality.
So: there really is an equivalence here, and sadly history teaches people nothing. This time they are right, dammit. With any luck, our grandkids will live to discuss how this was the biggest geopolitical miscalculation.
Don't think I have a point? Think about how everyone expected Russians to take to the streets and overthrow Putin back in 2022. The level of delusion is unreal.
> The suggestions to "just stop" (translation: "just lose") are actually serious.
Lose? You mean retreat to their own pre-war borders? To lose would be if they actually had to pay reparations or lost territory of their own. As I said, this would not be how the negotiations play out as Russia has the numbers to keep the war going as long as it wants.
But sure. Tell me what would be lost in Russia ending the war?
> Think about how everyone expected Russians to take to the streets and overthrow Putin back in 2022.
Who is going to try and overthrow the leader who disappears people? Everyone saw what happened to Prigozhin when he dissented. And of course, there are plenty of pro-war nationalists that would take Putin's place should he ever die. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here, or how it progresses your narrative of Russia as the victim in the conflict it started – at the economic and human cost to its own people – to take Ukraine territory.
Thank you for an interesting discussion. This is why I have this throwaway: to talk about things beyond the soundbites in the media without worrying about the downvoters.
To play devil's advocate: why doesn't the US stop now? There used to be a Ukraine entirely under Russia's control politically. Now there is a West Ukraine that is entirely dependent on the USA politically, has Black Sea access, has the oldest city in Russian history, has the oil and gas pipelines running through it (and so provides a way to continue to pressure Russia economically), and has a largely pro-West population. What is to be gained (other than pride) by forcing majority Russian-speaking lands that got accidentally attached to an entity named "Ukraine" to be part of this brave new world?
And before you go "but borders", let me point out that the reason behind many wars in Africa were borders that were arbitrarily drawn by the colonizers for their own convenience, and that often split up historically homogeneous tribes, or forced mortal enemies to be "the same country" (Harari has the details).
Finally, about the "who is going to try to overthrow Putin" point. It seems ridiculous now, but this is exactly what the media were selling back in 2022.
This is like saying -- we just have to accept that England belongs to Italy because after all London was once known as Londinium and was one of the most important cities in the Roman Empire.
Hey, Turkey bit off a chunk of Cyprus as late as 1974, and they are US allies. The US itself has presided over redrawing the borders in Serbia in the 90s (and somehow in that case the justification of "an ethnic minority wants a chunk of land" was totally legit).
It was communism that fostered this independence movement of the eastern states, and it was the USSR that drew the arbitrary line soon after the revolution.
> What is to be gained (other than pride) by forcing majority Russian-speaking lands that got accidentally attached to an entity named "Ukraine" to be part of this brave new world?
If this really was Russia’s intent they wouldn’t have tried to take the entire country at the outset. And if this is some kind of liberation project for those long suffering Russian speaking minorities, I’m certain those being bombed aren’t welcome of it. There’s no noble intentions behind the inception of this war, but let’s say there was, those intentions seem to have since been contradicted by the human cost which Russia’s leadership has proven insensitive to
Minorities? Reality is a stubborn thing. The numbers: Russians are 71% of the population of Sevastopol, 58% in Crimea, 39% in Donbas (but in Donbas, 97% of people who identified as Russian spoke Russian, whereas only 41% of those who identified as Ukrainian could actually speak Ukrainian). These are 2001 numbers from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine
And who, pray tell, is dropping bombs on these people? (and has been since 2014). Hint: it is not Russia. So they absolutely do welcome the protection and make up the majority of the fighting force currently advancing on West Ukraine. What is actually happening is in effect a civil war.
Edit: to the downvoters: which is it that you disagree with? That a chunk of a population larger than 50% is not a minority, or that people don't generally bomb themselves?
> Russians are 71% of the population of Sevastopol
Strawmanning again. That same census shows 17.3% of Ukraine identifies ethnically (or culturally) as Russian. But instead you want to split hairs.
> 58% in Crimea
Crimea is Russian in the pre-war border, and is irrelevant to this thread.
> whereas only 41% of those who identified as Ukrainian could actually speak Ukrainian
Kind of telling that non-Ukrainian speaking people are identifying as culturally as Ukrainian. It puts further doubt as to how much people inside the pre-war borders wanted to be 'liberated' by being usurped by Russia. Language != culture != nationality != support for annexation
All the same Sevastopol, which is the only majority Russian population in pre-war Ukraine that you mentioned, is not all of Ukraine. Very clearly Russia's play was for the whole country. The kind and noble angle you're presenting of Russia as liberator is either disingenuous, if you're trolling, or delusional, if you're being earnest.
> and make up the majority of the fighting force currently advancing on West Ukraine
Even if that's verifiable, there's no way of knowing how many are fighting by choice. Wouldn't be the first time Russians/USSR sent people to fight 'under pain of death'. And of course they aren't alone in this sort of conduct in war time.
> is dropping bombs on these people?
Both sides. Because of a war—I repeat once again—instigated by Russia. These populations wouldn't be caught in the crossfire of shifting battle fronts, if there was no... err.. battle.
So I'm done here. You aren't arguing in good faith, nor seem to yield to reason. Feel free to have the last reply.
Hey, I made you (and maybe a few other people) go look up those numbers to make sure this Russian troll isn't lying, and think about what they mean. That's already better than the usual "Putin evil, QED".
America has done a good job at nation building in the New Ukraine. They built a new country in Israel's image: ethnocentric and very militarized, with a strong warrior ethos. But you just can't resist adding a Gaza Strip, can you?
I think your timeline is off by about 2 decades. The nightmare period of Russia is not the current time, it's the 90's. That's when they were most wounded and the had the most economic turmoil. And just as you wouldn't have stopped Hitler by appeasing him after he grabbed the power, you won't stop Putin by appeasing him now.
If we are examining the equivalence between Putin and Hitler, and saying (aided by the passage of time so we can actually think calmly) - pressuring Germany was what allowed Hitler to come to power, is it not then true that this period where Russia was wounded and had all the turmoil is what allowed Putin to come to power?
Second question: who did the wounding? Who do you think the average Russian thinks did the wounding?
> is it not then true that this period where Russia was wounded and had all the turmoil is what allowed Putin to come to power?
Sure, that was my point.
> Second question: who did the wounding? Who do you think the average Russian thinks did the wounding?
It's... Hard for me to formulate a strong answer on this, but my impression is that Russia mostly did the wounding itself but the current average Russian probably blames either the reform attempts masking a power grab OR the west and the US for it's toils.
That's my point though: these leaders aren't aliens beamed down to Earth from space. They are the kind of leader a society elects as a sort of Hail Mary last ditch self preservation effort (yes, elects, in that they actually have support and are not usurpers).
As for the second part, let me retell an anecdote. I was once at a party (in the US) with someone who participated in "helping" one of the post-Soviet republics with reforming their industry after perestroika. After too many drinks he began to brag about how "these corrupt businessmen thought they were hot sh... for grabbing all that stuff, little did they know they were just handing it to us". There were a ton of vultures feasting on the USSR's corpse. Now, the fact that it came to that in the first place is absolutely the Soviet leadership's fault.
And it is also ultimately the current Russian leadership's fault that Victoria Nuland even got around to handing out those cookies 10 years ago.
And in any case, I think people really are failing to see the equivalence here, and it's scary. The suggestions to "just stop" (translation: "just lose") are actually serious. You'll have an economically crippled Russia with a wounded collective ego. Perfect setup for a rematch. Just like WW1 to WW2. But the normalizers have the majority opinion on their side at this point, and sadly nobody will stop them from making this tragedy a reality.
So: there really is an equivalence here, and sadly history teaches people nothing. This time they are right, dammit. With any luck, our grandkids will live to discuss how this was the biggest geopolitical miscalculation.
Don't think I have a point? Think about how everyone expected Russians to take to the streets and overthrow Putin back in 2022. The level of delusion is unreal.