For sure. Nearly all retail traders lose. But it’s primarily a result of unrealistic expectations and low barrier to entry.
If there were YouTube ads for weekend boot camps to become a doctor in 3 days and start making 6-figures next week, we’d ask why 99% of doctors fail.
Aside from luck, many appear profitable for a while, maybe 1-2 years, but even most of those have tricked themselves. They use too much leverage and beat the market until an infrequent correction happens and wipes them out, or they follow scammy systems that have high win rates and a very long duration before they hit a drawdown that wiped out all prior profits. Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.
For instance, you can pick whatever win rate you’d like, but it won’t necessarily be profitable. The scammer selling the course understands how that works, but the newly certified trader doesn’t.
Determining who “they” are is honestly hard, because luck and leverage can pave a long runway. If someone starts a business, and exits 5 years later with 7-figures in the bank, is there a way to know if they’re successful at business or just lucky? It’s hard to answer that question, good business people still exist.
The difference being that in two of the alternatives you list skill has a role to some non-trivial degree, while retail trading (not traditional long-term investing) is dependent almost 100% on pure luck. Even with traditional long-term investing luck plays a much larger role than it does for business, or any skill-based profession.
If there were YouTube ads for weekend boot camps to become a doctor in 3 days and start making 6-figures next week, we’d ask why 99% of doctors fail.
Aside from luck, many appear profitable for a while, maybe 1-2 years, but even most of those have tricked themselves. They use too much leverage and beat the market until an infrequent correction happens and wipes them out, or they follow scammy systems that have high win rates and a very long duration before they hit a drawdown that wiped out all prior profits. Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.
For instance, you can pick whatever win rate you’d like, but it won’t necessarily be profitable. The scammer selling the course understands how that works, but the newly certified trader doesn’t.
Determining who “they” are is honestly hard, because luck and leverage can pave a long runway. If someone starts a business, and exits 5 years later with 7-figures in the bank, is there a way to know if they’re successful at business or just lucky? It’s hard to answer that question, good business people still exist.