There's an important difference here in that AI company is basically a new market. If 50% of Mexican restaurants or low-cost database companies that start this year go out of business by 2026 it doesn't matter much because there's a pre-existing mass of them. If 85% of AI startups go out of business by 2026 that's basically 85% of ALL AI companies.
If, last year, we had seen a headline that "85% of all Blockchain Startups Will Be Out of Business in 3 Years" I don't think anyone would be shocked at that prediction.