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I recently listened to an episode of the How I Built This podcast with one of the members of the PayPal mafia.

He mentioned that one of Peter Thiels greatest abilities is to spot and predict upcoming economic declines. Max Levchin said that Peter seemed to always know when to get in and out of markets.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-i-built-this-with-...



Thiel's Clarium Capital went from $8B in 2008 to $350m in 2011 due to bad bets and redemptions because of those bad bets... It then went defunct

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarium_Capital


I’ve gone back a few times in the last 2 years and watched his startup school talk on “Competition is for losers”. A lot of his theories and principals sounded brilliant at the time. As each year passes, a lot of his ideas quickly seemed silly.

For example, he compared an airline stock to Google. Google was worth more than the airline, but he believed the airline provided a much greater valued service. He asked the class to imagine life without the airline, or Google. He said he could live without Google, but not without airlines.

Fast forward to today, I would argue that Google provides the greater service. We couldn’t live without Google today, but I can think of a number of ways to travel across the country without using a plane. Greyhound, Uber, rent a car. Heck, there is even an app for cyclists to find a backyard to camp in overnight.


Why are people entertaining this? So a guy called Peter was born with an ability to time markets.. haha good for a chuckle I guess.


Some would call it luck, others would call it being in the right place at the right time, with the right engineers.




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