And maybe a war in a country that produces a lot of wheat

True, but if the input costs were lower, the difference would easily be made up.

you can't "spin up a new instance" with farming. The ripples are just now reaching the shore. This will be a longer period for recovery than most people understand.

No, but they decide each planting season what to plant. Farmers tend to shuffle crops when needed. Haven't talked to anyone around here about what is in the ground.

Where I live (southern Sweden) they switched almost entirely to rapeseed and grains due to the shortages. It's expected to be pretty profitable although there are a lot of other factors including low rainfall...

Russia is the biggest fertiliser exporter in the world. Sanctions aren't likely to keep prices down.

... and a population explosion in Africa.

I recall reading about many climate factors — Indian crops scorched by heat, Chinese wheat season delayed by rains/floods, etc. I didn’t pay enough attention to know the relative importance of the climate and non-climate factors.

Every year has climate factors. There's always some place where the season is bad for this or that reason, this is the nature of agriculture, not something new.

Not just oil prices, but minerals too.