> Huh? Inflation has been ramping up FAR in advance of the Ukraine invasion.
Exiting COVID, lots of demand chasing limited supply, shipping issues, supply chain issues - especially for core inputs like silicon wafers. However, that was well on its way to being resolved, which is what you see in the CPI data in spite of the Russian war. +0.3% MoM vs expected +0.5% MoM. The worst is well behind us.
Lumber is way down, corn is flat, soy is flat, consumer discretionary inventories (excluding auto) are up and there's word that demand for chips has peaked too.
> No, these consequences have been in the making since Helicopter Ben launched QE.
The impact from QE is limited compared to all the above. There's a ton of demand for dollars, not just domestically but internationally. Monetary policy has some, small, impact, but nothing compared to the war, supply chains, shipping issues and labor market issues.
How can you accurately predict that the worst is behind us, when you don't know the outcome of the Covid tornado wreaking havoc in China? You can correctly forecast how that's going to play out and how it'll impact manufacturing and consumer prices globally? Of course not, nobody can.
Exiting COVID, lots of demand chasing limited supply, shipping issues, supply chain issues - especially for core inputs like silicon wafers. However, that was well on its way to being resolved, which is what you see in the CPI data in spite of the Russian war. +0.3% MoM vs expected +0.5% MoM. The worst is well behind us.
Lumber is way down, corn is flat, soy is flat, consumer discretionary inventories (excluding auto) are up and there's word that demand for chips has peaked too.
> No, these consequences have been in the making since Helicopter Ben launched QE.
The impact from QE is limited compared to all the above. There's a ton of demand for dollars, not just domestically but internationally. Monetary policy has some, small, impact, but nothing compared to the war, supply chains, shipping issues and labor market issues.