I think these sorts of failures of 'common sense' are common among people who have studied economic theory. Economic theory often does a decent job at describing steady states: where the asymptote will eventually land, but does a very poor job of describing the chaotic middle steps, IMO.
If you chop a 10 huge trees down in a forest, an economist would tell you "There should be 10 300-year old trees here". That may be true in 300 years, but the procession of species in the 300-year interim will be much more interesting, and understanding that tells you much more about ecology than knowing the eventual result. And the forest may not last 300 years before conditions change so significantly that it invalidates the prediction.
Similarly, the efficient markets hypothesis really breaks down in the modern era, because market conditions don't ever experience an unperturbed steady state. Technology, politics, availability of expertise, and shifting social norms rearrange the foundations more frequently so equilibrium is never reached.
Any long-term theoretical predictions on quality or efficiency of CRT monitors or horseshoes or fondue pots converging to an efficient ideal state were nonsensical and doomed from the start: the market conditions around them changed faster than the market is able to adapt.
If you chop a 10 huge trees down in a forest, an economist would tell you "There should be 10 300-year old trees here". That may be true in 300 years, but the procession of species in the 300-year interim will be much more interesting, and understanding that tells you much more about ecology than knowing the eventual result. And the forest may not last 300 years before conditions change so significantly that it invalidates the prediction.
Similarly, the efficient markets hypothesis really breaks down in the modern era, because market conditions don't ever experience an unperturbed steady state. Technology, politics, availability of expertise, and shifting social norms rearrange the foundations more frequently so equilibrium is never reached.
Any long-term theoretical predictions on quality or efficiency of CRT monitors or horseshoes or fondue pots converging to an efficient ideal state were nonsensical and doomed from the start: the market conditions around them changed faster than the market is able to adapt.