>A common pattern for Russia is announcing unplanned railroad/pipeline maintenance when a country makes a political decision that Russia finds unacceptable
I don't see how it's relevant to the discussed gas topic, but I will play along.
How exactly is it fundamentally different from the numerous US sanctions? Also this "pattern" is far from being a Russian invention.
>Or cranking up gas prices at random.
How exactly does Russia crank those prices "at random" if they are mostly determined by long term contracts tied to oil prices? At least it was the model preferred by Russia since it's allowed to properly plan investments into infrastructure. And BTW this model is a European invention (see the Groningen principle) with a very good reasons behind it.
If you want "free market" spot prices, then supplier is in his full right to decide a price at which he's willing to sell his stuff (as well as a buyer has right to abstain from buying it), be it at random or not. Or do you think that other countries are somehow entitled to cheap Russian resources without striking a mutually beneficial deal? Though judging by some Western officials' statements, it looks like there is a lot of those who think that they indeed are.
And while we are talking about prices, it's quite interesting how European courts retroactively change mutually agreed contract conditions to make them "fair" at the expense of the Russian side. Though those changes has backfired quite hilariously in this season.
>Also harassing ships that are laying undersea power cables with unannounced military drills.
Again I don't see a connection to the gas topic. And I haven't heard anything about such events and a cursory search hasn't showed any news like this. Care to provide a link?
> I don't see how it's relevant to the discussed gas topic, but I will play along.
The topic originally was whether Russia could realistically become the main trading partner for Scandinavian countries and how unpredictability is the number one reason why it won't happen.
> How exactly is it fundamentally different from the numerous US sanctions?
This is just Russian whataboutism, this is not about the US.
EU has done a lot to limit Russia's monopolistic behavior in recent years, but not long ago gas prices in neighbouring countries could differ 2-3x because of political decisions and artifical contractual limits, not any market forces. To this day, Russia can manipulate gas prices by reducing their throughput, since they're still the single largest provider.
>The topic originally was whether Russia could realistically become the main trading partner for Scandinavian countries and how unpredictability is the number one reason why it won't happen.
Russia is a predictable Germany trading partner since Soviet times unless third countries get involved. You will not hear from German business that Russian side was unpredictable or irresponsible. You only hear it from third countries and politicians who actively interfere with "market forces".
Russia has a fine relationship with Finland and luckily there are no middle-man between them. And as the Hanhikivi plant shows Finland is not paranoid about Russia either.
>This is just Russian whataboutism, this is not about the US.
No, it's a clear demonstration that Russian behavior is not unique, only the tool set is different. You don't hear much about US, EU, India, or China "unpredictability" when they apply pressure on other countries using their tool set, do you?
>not long ago gas prices in neighbouring countries could differ 2-3x because of political decisions and artifical contractual limits, not any market forces
Did Russia somehow prevented buying gas from other sources? But the problem was that alternatives were 5-10x more expensive. So you had either pay in cash the "fair" 3x price or pay 1x in cash and rest in non-monetary forms. Looks like a fine market to me with agents playing the cards they've got.
>To this day, Russia can manipulate gas prices by reducing their throughput, since they're still the single largest provider.
EU pushed for "market forces", it got them. Why are you not happy? Why are you act surprised that after you forced long term contracts to be tied to spot prices Russia does not want to supply more than it contractually obliged? It's a perfectly rational behavior for a market agent in current conditions. Especially so, when result of significant investments literally lies on the sea floor unused enduring politically motivated delays.
And where exactly does it mention "unannounced military drills"? Even if we are to fully trust the source (Latvian minister) a Russian ship was somewhere in the region and asked over radio some nonsense, after that it simply left. But, personally, I am quite sure that this story got significantly overblown by the Latvian side since I couldn't find an independent confirmation. All coverage gets back to Latvian ministers (either foreign or energy), which are quite known for being light with Russo-phobic declarations.
Now compare it to Polish boat literally ramming one of ships building Nord Stream 2 [0], Polish Navy "patrolling" [1] the same vessels, and Danish Navy "visiting" the area of the pipeline construction [2]. You may say that those claims are exaggerated or even lies, but at the very least they have photo and video confirmations, which can not be said about the Latvian story.
I don't see how it's relevant to the discussed gas topic, but I will play along.
How exactly is it fundamentally different from the numerous US sanctions? Also this "pattern" is far from being a Russian invention.
>Or cranking up gas prices at random.
How exactly does Russia crank those prices "at random" if they are mostly determined by long term contracts tied to oil prices? At least it was the model preferred by Russia since it's allowed to properly plan investments into infrastructure. And BTW this model is a European invention (see the Groningen principle) with a very good reasons behind it.
If you want "free market" spot prices, then supplier is in his full right to decide a price at which he's willing to sell his stuff (as well as a buyer has right to abstain from buying it), be it at random or not. Or do you think that other countries are somehow entitled to cheap Russian resources without striking a mutually beneficial deal? Though judging by some Western officials' statements, it looks like there is a lot of those who think that they indeed are.
And while we are talking about prices, it's quite interesting how European courts retroactively change mutually agreed contract conditions to make them "fair" at the expense of the Russian side. Though those changes has backfired quite hilariously in this season.
>Also harassing ships that are laying undersea power cables with unannounced military drills.
Again I don't see a connection to the gas topic. And I haven't heard anything about such events and a cursory search hasn't showed any news like this. Care to provide a link?