Very insightful. There are three other variables that are important here, but which unfortunately are very opaque to me:
* Is Evergrande an isolated case of "Ponzi finance" (taking money from new customers to pay interest to old customers), or just the tip of an iceberg? How many other Evergrandes are there in China? To what degree has uneconomic lending and investing underpinned the Chinese economy over the past three decades?
* If the mass of Chinese consumers who lent to the Evergrandes of China get stiffed, how will their behavior change? And how will that impact the Chinese economy?
* If foreigner lenders get stiffed, how does that affect credit markets -- in China, in Asia, and everywhere else?
* Is Evergrande an isolated case of "Ponzi finance" (taking money from new customers to pay interest to old customers), or just the tip of an iceberg? How many other Evergrandes are there in China? To what degree has uneconomic lending and investing underpinned the Chinese economy over the past three decades?
* If the mass of Chinese consumers who lent to the Evergrandes of China get stiffed, how will their behavior change? And how will that impact the Chinese economy?
* If foreigner lenders get stiffed, how does that affect credit markets -- in China, in Asia, and everywhere else?