No one knows, but I think it means we're going to see a massive deleveraging event in both China and the US. But maybe we can all keep kicking the can indefinitely. Who knows?
If Chinese are looking for alternatives to collapsing domestic investment, I don't see how they do that at the scale they need to without leaning further into US bonds, whether directly or via Chinese government using it to back up domestic offerings.
Do you think this would put us (the US) in a stronger strategic position going forward?
It seems like the music has to stop eventually for Chinese growth, especially since the differential between "real" GDP and reported GDP is likely larger than even this seems.
If they lean into US bonds, wouldn't that weaken their strategic position? I'm not sure they'd be willing to do so.
