> The question is how much and how long will it last in reality.
Same goes for the CFL bulbs. For me the failure rate was so high that I started writing the date on the base of the CFL every time I install a new one(1). Average lifetime of a CFL bulb so far: 9 months. A very far cry from the promised lifetime.
(1) I don't buy the cheap knock-offs at the local Big Box Store. I get top-of-the-line Sylvanias and Phillips CFL's. No difference -- they die just as fast as the cheap ones do.
That would make me start to wonder about the quality of the power in my house. I've seen the power here at my house in the Atlanta area actually drop below 100V for extended periods of time and I could see that causing stress on the ballasts in our CFLs. Our bulbs that have gone out always seem to be shortly after one of those events. (This is incidentally why we also have UPSs all over the house on anything even mildly sensitive)
> I'm not buying a $40 bulb, even from Philips, unless it has a 20 year warranty.
Even if it has a 20 year warranty, that's not much good because the cost of using the warranty exceeds the value of product replacement. (Do you keep receipts and product packages long enough? Then there's the hassle of doing the return.)
After more than a year's use I've only had one failure of cheap CFL I bought in a package of 6 or so (for only about $60US at Wallys/Sams or some such). I wouldn't have paid $4/ea, but at <$2/ea they were hardly more expensive than tungsten.
This is about the same rate I'm getting on the CFL packs I'm getting from BJs. I'm wondering if there's a particular manufacturer or factory that is skimping on components. I have a couple CFLs that are used daily that have lasted 8 years and still going. They are in non-enclosed fixtures though.
It's not printed on the bulb unfortunately but it was like $7-$8 at walmart. I suspect it's not the leds that failed but the regulating electronics - I'm saving it to try to re-use the leds someday, maybe for direct-drive off a battery.
The $15 one above looks like much better quality and 1/3rd the price of the philips. I'm not dropping $40 ever on a led bulb.
My last "forever" led bulb just died, it lasted 3 years.
I'm not buying a $40 bulb, even from Philips, unless it has a 20 year warranty.
I think I am going to try this one next, $15 but available in soft-while intead of just pure white and it's assembled in the USA supposedly: http://www.goldengadgets.com/gt-7d-7-watt-led-globe-light-bu...
Note the helpful chart on that page halfway to the bottom (should be near the top!)