Yes, I know it’s a ratio. That’s why I used the term “numerator” and “denominator”.
It’s not at all implausible that Italy has missed the vast majority of it’s cases, because they’re barely testing, and they’re not testing minor cases. It’s essentially guaranteed that they’re missing a huge number of cases.
A reasonable estimate is that they’re missing 10 cases for every one they actually detect. The error in the denominator is much larger than the error in the numerator.
It’s not at all implausible that Italy has missed the vast majority of it’s cases, because they’re barely testing, and they’re not testing minor cases. It’s essentially guaranteed that they’re missing a huge number of cases.
A reasonable estimate is that they’re missing 10 cases for every one they actually detect. The error in the denominator is much larger than the error in the numerator.