It makes a whole lot of sense if you consider that the goal of Snowden's defection isn't just to bring secret information to Russia, but rather to undermine Trust in western democracy - a well documented goal of Russia's intelligence services.
You still don't get the point that Snowden may be flat out lying over certain things, like his reasons to go to Hongkong or to "choose" Russian exile.
It still doesn't make sense. Why blow a super-valuable asset to 'undermine trust in western democracy'? I mean, you have a mole in the NSA and your next step is... TV interviews in Moscow? To make him a Russian agent you have to explain or make up a whole pile of things for which there is no evidence at all, so far.
Nope. He may not have been willing or capable to be a long-term asset. It was possible and probable he would have been revealed. He may have had scruples as to how far to betray his country. He may not even have had access to an ongoing stream of documents to justify the risk.
What do I have to make up? He went to Russia and helped Putin's cause. That's all I know.
I do believe this to be at least as plausible as the apparently more popular alternative that Snowden is a saint, didn't lie about anything and only wanted to make the world a better and more democratic place by getting help from China, Putin, Castro and Venezuela.
He may not have been willing or capable to be a long-term asset. It was possible and probable he would have been revealed. He may have had scruples as to how far to betray his country. He may not even have had access to an ongoing stream of documents to justify the risk.
You just made all of these up to explain away his behaviour which is generally not that consistent with "Russian spy". For the simpler version - "he probably wasn't a Russian spy" you don't have to propose any of these (really strange) things. Can you think of any spy who behaved like that? Did Kim Philby give interviews on his way to Moscow? You don't have to believe Snowden is a saint or hasn't lied about or obfuscated his motives to think there is little evidence he's a Russian agent because there really isn't any, so far.
I never said Snowden was a "spy". The alternative I am proposing is that he was approached by a covert operative (a "spy") who nudged or convinced him on what he eventually did. This doesn't even require ultimately require financial motives or a will to betray his country. He may even believe to be helping his country, even though he is cooperating with a foreign government.
And yes, this kind of thing happens all the time. "Moles" are the exception in terms of covert "assets". Double agents even more so. On the other hand, there are recurring reports of employees in the government and defense contractors being approached by operatives (or other assets). The Chinese seem to be very fond of honey traps, too.
Saying Snowden isn't an asset isn't that much simpler and it doesn't need less assumptions. Because I am not deciding on either possibility, and not trying to convict him, Snowden's honesty isn't a proven fact in my view. I don't have the burden of proof to assume he could be lying, just as nobody can prove he isn't lying.
The alternative I am proposing is that he was approached by a covert operative (a "spy") who nudged or convinced him on what he eventually did.
I.e. recruited Snowden as a spy. I'm not sure what we're hairsplitting over.
You do have the burden of, if not proof, then some kind of plausible theory supported by something other than complete speculation. None of the stuff Snowden did (you can safely ignore everything he's said) really fits with 'Russian agent'. Why leave at all? Why go to Hong Kong? Why deal with journalists? Why even actually carry the data around? None of this really makes much sense.
There are plenty of reasonable 'Snowden, the not-saint' theories you can put forward that can at least be used to explain some of his actions. For instance, maybe Snowden took all the extra data in the hopes of passing it to a foreign intelligence service/government in exchange for his safety. That's distinctly non-saintly and at odds with what he's said. But it's self-consistent.
A Russian agent has infiltrated the NSA but then somehow his handlers can neither keep him in place nor safely extract him OR his (their!) data. He then takes off galavanting across the world, talking to journalists and in possession of a giant pile of classified material. Eventually and seemingly accidentally, he get stuck in Moscow. Is this possible? Maybe. But it sure is convoluted and implausible. It's just speculation that doesn't really fit anything and seems mostly to serve as a roundabout way of saying 'I really don't like Snowden'. I think it's easier to just say you really don't like Snowden.
You are idealizing the reach of "spies". And no, an asset/source is not necessarily a "spy", and there is no incentive to become and stay a "mole".
Snowden never "infiltrated" the NSA. He got access to some data he shouldn't have had.
You also assume that the Russians didn't get the data, either before or after his flight.
This fits perfectly with the goal of shaking confidence in western democracy. For this it makes perfect sense to give the data to journalists and come up with a simple and untainted origin story. It doesn't mean that the data Snowden had didn't end up in the FSB's hand. It doesn't mean the data he had access to was more valuable to the FSB if not passed on to journalists.
The only way this theory doesn't fit is when viewed in light of simplistic notions of "Human Intelligence" methods, inspired by some bad spy movies. In reality, it's much more boring, and limited compromise of foreign assets seems the norm, rather than some super-spies becoming moles or double agents.
You are idealizing the reach of "spies". And no, an asset/source is not necessarily a "spy", and there is no incentive to become and stay a "mole".
Snowden never "infiltrated" the NSA. He got access to some data he shouldn't have had.
Again, I have no idea what this discussion of terminology has to do with anything. I'm using the plain English meaning of 'spy'. It's not really that important. Although Snowden specifically sought a job to gain access to data and social-engineered passwords out of coworkers. It's not like he was finding files people had forgotten in bathroom stalls and then bumped into the Russian Naval attache at Starbucks and they got to talking.
You also assume that the Russians didn't get the data, either before or after his flight.
Where did I assume that? And again, how is that related to anything?
This fits perfectly with the goal of shaking confidence in western democracy. For this it makes perfect sense to give the data to journalists and come up with a simple and untainted origin story.
No. It doesn't. Snowden's impact has been extremely limited. His value as a source at his job would far, far outweigh any imaginary 'influence operation'. You're essentially saying that the most important thing to Russian intelligence is not actual intelligence but making the west look bad. You haven't answered the zillion of simple questions that arise - why on earth would anyone cultivate a source with such valuable access only to blow him on some completely ridiculous sideshow that could have been accomplished much more cheaply. And, of course, you'd have to do it perfectly - there is nothing the US would like to do more than to discredit Snowden as a Russian spy. So one slip, one little bit of evidence and not only have you wasted this invaluable source, your 'confidence shaking' operation is discredited. Nobody would do that. Your theory has to provide some sort of rational motives for the players and it doesn't - it just piles on improbable things. I'm not trying to defend Snowden. I'm trying to defend common sense. If you think he's a spy, try explaining his actions, his motivations, the motivations of his handlers, etc. I don't think you can.
You assume Snowden had the ability and willingness to stay hidden as a mole and continously feed data to his handlers. Apparently the NSA did figure out a lot of what he did, and quite quickly, so it was reasonable he should fear detection.
The handler then would face the decision: Force Snowden to do what he can't and/or wouldn't do, or moving on with the secondary plan.
My impression is that he went to the ChiComs first, they decided his stolen files were too hot for them to handle, so he went to Russia as a backup plan.
Nothing is too hot to handle for a big nation state like China. I don't know exactly why China didn't detain him. But there are a whole lot of possibilities from being to slow off the mark, avoiding ruffled feathers with the US, up to an agreement with Russia.
Maybe Snowden really hadn't anything with him in Hong Kong which he hasn't already shared with Journalists and the Russians.
