I agree excel is a better app than google docs. I find the argument that it's just fine for 95% of the population worrying. This doesn't say that the browser is a superior technology, but an inferior technology that 'will do'.
If we turn the tables and I was advocating non web apps because they're good enough for most users, well I'm sure what the reaction would be (I'm being downvoted for advocating a technology that is superior and easier to develop for at the moment - but it seems my water is kool aid free).
I'm not disagreeing that some web apps are useful, and indeed I use them regularly, I'd put the point at closer to 5%, and if I exclude google search we'd be down to 2%. I'm a business user and I'm happy to pay for applications that I use and provide value. But the idea that is being pushed to new developers is that all future apps should be web apps is damaging to the profession and is incorrect.
If we look at the proportion of html based web apps that generate value and exclude search it would be interesting to see what percentage value of application revenue would be generated - 1%? 10%? more, less?
I also note the applications you mention are business apps with a html client and server backend which I agree are suited to an html client. Although I prefer (as do many others) a more responsive native client front end. This uses html as a more advanced 3270 terminal really, which is fine but it's not cutting edge, no matter how it's presented.
So much more could be achieved by using native front ends and just forgetting about the web browser. Look at itunes as an example it's a web enabled app and uses native code.
Perhaps I'm biased - I work for an Enterprise Focused Organization (about 100 Engineers) that builds applications for Utilities. Outage Detection, Network Monitoring, Advanced Meter Reading. We never even considered building any of these tools as thick apps - 100% Web Apps. The Tools we use to manage the builds, file the defects, track customer requests, monitor networks - all Web Applications.
But -your point has merit when I look at the _number_ of applications I use - Around 25 in a given week (Terminal.App, Mail.App (Irony. :-), Colloquy, Adium, Excel, Visio, RemoteDesktop, FireFox, VMware, iTunes, VLC, CiscoVPN Client, Calc, Wireshark, etc...).
I guess, at the end of the day, the question is, what type of user are you - Those of us who are developers, SysAdmins, may be more likely to use a lot of thick clients, whereas people who have a limited number of tasks (Customer Service Representatives, Purely Administrative) may be be more likely to use Web Tools.
I make the argument about technology that "will do" - because I recognize that most people aren't you and I, they really just want to use their computer for a very limited set of tasks and move on. But, your point about turning the tables is well made. Overall, we should recommend the best tools for the job.
It's just that Web Applications, once built, are so easy to deploy across the enterprise. It really is hard to build a decent application that can be (A) Rapidly Deployed to everyone, (B) Be maintained with patches on everyone's system, and (C) Be useful on Windows, OS X, and Linux, _unless_ you deploy it as a WebApp. For some reason, Java Apps never really took off (I'm not sure if you consider Java Apps to be Web or Thick Client - I think they are in the middle.)
And, I agree with you in terms of where I get Value - at the end of the day, when I _really_ need to get some serious content creation or analysis done - It's Excel, Visio, and, interesting enough - my local shell. I'm astonished how, 15 years into technology management, I use awk on 10 Gigabyte files to do critical work. Definitely not a webapp.
So, I guess after reading your analysis, I probably agree with you more than I disagree. In particular, "html as a more advanced 3270 terminal" brings it home for me. The reality is, when I need more than just a terminal onto a back end application, I _do_ use a local thick client, and, I'm guessing that if most of the HN audience reviewed their work habits, they do as well.
I agree it is unfortunate that Java apps never took off, but that may change, or something like java will replace it. Maybe it was a technology before it's time - or promised more than it delivered, it did have it's flaws. Silverlight and flash are trying to take that place, but no one really wants a proprietary solution.
As for the browser it has it's place, but it's not going to replace thick clients and OS's at least not in the near future.
If we turn the tables and I was advocating non web apps because they're good enough for most users, well I'm sure what the reaction would be (I'm being downvoted for advocating a technology that is superior and easier to develop for at the moment - but it seems my water is kool aid free).
I'm not disagreeing that some web apps are useful, and indeed I use them regularly, I'd put the point at closer to 5%, and if I exclude google search we'd be down to 2%. I'm a business user and I'm happy to pay for applications that I use and provide value. But the idea that is being pushed to new developers is that all future apps should be web apps is damaging to the profession and is incorrect.
If we look at the proportion of html based web apps that generate value and exclude search it would be interesting to see what percentage value of application revenue would be generated - 1%? 10%? more, less?
I also note the applications you mention are business apps with a html client and server backend which I agree are suited to an html client. Although I prefer (as do many others) a more responsive native client front end. This uses html as a more advanced 3270 terminal really, which is fine but it's not cutting edge, no matter how it's presented.
So much more could be achieved by using native front ends and just forgetting about the web browser. Look at itunes as an example it's a web enabled app and uses native code.