Even if I don't know you I fell pretty confident that is more probable that you are messing up with the login than FB. So the changes of a downtime are lower. The business value it's another topic...
I think is more because who is running A/B testing are not knowledgeable in stats, there are many other pitfalls that people fall into (in my personable experience) much worst than not using Bayesian rule, like sampling
Yea, I really agree with that statement. There seems to be much bigger problems that most people (starting out or moderately advanced) have with A/B testing. I hate when I see articles that talk about getting amazing results in "just 2 days."