Tourists where only cash is accepted are the most effected. They didn't come to India to stand in queue to pay fo meals.... They came to travel freely.
I can see every minute it will become nightmare because nobody wants to spend because they don't have change. In matter month the tourism which relies on cash will be dead.
Rajan stood for poor India... He saw through this... He was told to go.
My respect for rajan grew all the more the day I learnt that he had reservations about demonetisation plan.... .. I can see clearly why he was asked to go.
The Facts:
Justdial used to generate total 1000 leads a day across 10 industries(realty,services,transport etc) in one city.
Number leads per day
Nov 1st :986.
Nov 2nd: 977
Nov 3rd: 956
Nov 8th: 705
Nov 9th: 403
Nov 10th:212
Nov 11th: 156
Remember more than 200 companies are effected because of this in one city alone. India has 2300 small towns n cities. Imagine the scale of business lost.
Lost business or leads not created because of demonetisation is huge. At this rate more than 70% of business turn over will be lost and this will kill small business completely.
1.cash riots for lack of cash in every market.... Indias 70 % population use cash.
2.Normally 10% of ATM's don't work.. Now it's 95% of them not working.The anger is raising every minute.... It will be unsustainable if riots breakdown...please do something creative "Lets not become another riot hit country."
3.Demonitisation caused Prices of perishables to raise /it will kill the dealers. The big market yards all deal with cash.... It's nightmare to ask them to even do basic signature forget asking them to do fund transfer. It's far too tough and far too many people are being left behind because they are illiterate. Everything will skyrocket from here.
4.Realty will fall 40%. With it all support industries like Telecom and Infra industry. Only infra projects which get government payments will be sustainable. Rest in single sweep go down to no point of return.
5.The illiterate and masses are the most effected with this move. Remember 80% of Indians earn less than 2lakh. All they get is daily payments... I got at least 5autowalas and others to open bank account. When I looked at the scale of getting 50crore Indians onboard is far too much to little time of 30 days.
It's become war on the poor and illiterate instead of black money hoarders. I am sure there are better and more suitable solutions instead of this mess.
Dear Smart HN reader,Kindly suggest ways what do from here on,otherwise the poor will suffer because they are not smart enough to open bank accounts.
I will publish solutions suggested here to all news agencies.
Relax! its more complicated and worse than that. You can't put in 1000's and 500's into ATM's anymore. Nor can you put 2000's as dimensions of the notes have changed! What that means is you need to put in all 100's. Basically the capacity of an ATM just came down by a factor of 10x. Worse there not many 100's going around. Whatever people get is going into hoarding(due to uncertainty of the future). Now imagine moving that kind of cash across every single ATM in India. And replenishing those machines every few hours. This is a logistical nightmare at gigantic levels. Banks aren't dispensing meaningful cash either, nor do a lot of people have bank accounts. So its a double whammy.
People aren't buying non essential goods. Clothing, Electronics others etc industry is suffering by the minute. There is no money to payout lower middle class and poor people. On top of this you see secondary effects like food running out, or getting expensive. No fuel. Emergency services in peril because hospitals aren't taking cash.
They need to find solution to the crisis within Monday before the poor have a last-straw-on-the-camel's-back situation, and something ugly unfolds from there on.
1.EMERGENCIES
2.FOOD
3.RIOTS
4.LAW ENFORCEMENT BECOMES NIGHTMARE.
5.Everybody is calm till supplies last. Locality by locality, then city by city and state by state will fall. Fall in terms of food supplies ,emergency services,transportation and then riots.
Actually what scares me is India has never had this situation before so nobody has this 'Whats next' knowledge to even think rationally about the whole situation.
But by looks like it that, credit kirana shop economy is quite close to collapse.
Hope they mobilize distribution on a war footing now.
*1kg tomato is going for 30paisa in market yard. Average cost is Rs.13 ...thats 99.99% loss in value. .This is killing farmers and in another 10days you will see farmer suicides because they can't get price for their produce due lack of cash. The farmers are dumping their produce and going home depressed. This is not fair by anymeans.
While cities will see skyrocketing of price because of lack of stock.
Modi has hit at the heart of Indian economy of Farmers. They just are helpless ,the panic is rising every minute and it will create chaos in matter days.
wow you are spot on with Bernie and Demonetisation of currency. I think I can say trump won because of independents were not allowed to vote for Bernie...effectively DNC did a self goal.
Bernie is the most popular guy ever.....somehow hillary and her machinery scrwed him, independents inturn screwed her.
great and simple, this would be much more practical way of doing things ...AED drones.Thats simple and effective...I am wondering why its not applied everywhere already?
I was fortunate to discover Jeff Hawkins in the early 2007 , when he was exploring brain science ..
.I went through his lectures for entrepreneurs at ecorner.stanford.edu , being indian ,I had to literally slow down the video to understand his speech and he is like Bill gross, very very fast in articulating and highly energetic in their talk. You can feel their passion in their work.
Incidently Jeff Hawkins was the first to work on Palm software.....you can say early versions of today's smartphones.
Coming back to brain science , I somehow feel it's more to do with complexity (Santafe.edu).
I am waiting for jeff Hawkins to launch a university like santafe.edu ( complexity) which works exclusively on brain science. Perhaps that would increase application of brain science.
Failed, job, startup -success...gave up company because of co- founder,started again.. startup- success...amazing journey first 3 years...next 4 years hell with business partner.
I have failed in the year 2011 after 7 long years at my bootstrapped company. My business partner didn't want me around, I was pretty emotional after so many years, I felt it's time to accept fate n move forward.
Broke up with my gf, I quit my company(gave my 67% to partner if he split debt). So I pretty much walked out with million dollars debt and nothing on hand, life was tough.
I started again,my small business was ok, my burn rate was low,I was ramen profitable ...burning $2000 per month but all customers money, hired employees fired lazy ones.
I just couldn't cope with debt sold my house, my car, my dads house , my aunts house, fortunately n unfortunately I am from india, here people threaten with dire consequences and people give all their life earnings for loved ones. So all the assests cleared about 500k usd dollars.
I earned 200k usd doing consulting, mobile apps, web apps, sentiment analysis ,paid 60k usd salaries. Now I have another 200,000 usd to clear on track to clear it but ....something beautiful happened , I married my gf after 3 years of break, my ex-business partner wants to do business with me again since he saw how I came out of rat hole,...
.I just have one thing to say "don't give up and hang in there with logic and common sense"
I feel I will succeed financially in 2015 , Our product is coming beautifully...then perhaps I can write a book...till then I have midnight oil to burn..
How did you end up with $1m of personal debt? That seems like an epic disaster, worth telling the tale to allow others to avoid making that sort of mistake.
For my part, in 2 failed businesses I never went more than £10k or so into personal debt.
In india when you borrow for business ,it's usually personal friends, family and distant cousins.
I never borrowed but from my family , but since my business partner borrowed hell lot from friends, cousins, to keep it going , we were essentially paying 24%-36% interest on the debt, almost all the profit was going to just pay interest.
And since we were
Not making operational profit , we did turn over of 5million usd , paid interest of 2 million and operationally we were in a debt trap. It was classic case of denial of risk and peril.
just thought that I will come up with blockbuster product and wipe it all,it never happened in 7 years the problems multiplied. Debtors were hounding on the door for their principal, even though we paid them huge interest,it's like bank run, once they sense things are wrong , everybody wants their money back on that day. Got into new personal guarantee agreements ,made huge sacrifices and finally here I am.
Any reason why you went for 24% to 36% loan with friends rather than bank loan? with the turn around like that you could have also taken small business aid loan which are 12% at worst.
Also why would you pay US$ salary in India(assume)? There are lot of well funded small startup's that would staff augment you for US20$ an hour for decent programmer and you could have used remote college student for the programming after initial training.
Haven't done startup as thinking of doing in in our environment gives me jitters as I am not a very social person and gets really pissed of with govt officials. May the that was only way you had at the time.
I wrote numbers in dollars for wider audience understanding, I paid salaries in rupees. As you might understand, a business loan from bank depends on collateral security you can offer , I could only give 200k collateral hence the business bank loan got limited there.
One of the most important lessons , I got early on is ,you need developers and staff full time on rolls,right next to you if your business model is dynamic and also you are not sure of staff quality. If you go to skillpages, there will be thousand resumes claiming they know Python , once you hire them you will know the quality, outsourcing works to that kind student quality is like sure shot disaster.
Also I just was not lucky enough to find quality talent to outsource.
About india being good for entrepreneurs , yes and no, depends on what you are working, but just to give up on startup idea altogether is not recommended ,choose carefully plan well and most of all EXECUTE WELL.
Congrats on coming out of failure. I would love to learn more about what worked and what didn't work. What sort of pitfalls you had, lessons learned, etc
1.Never ever give personal gaurantee for more than your net worth! So that failure stops with you, otherwise your entire family gets affected.
2.Focus on one thing , become incredibly good at it.
3.Focus on customers and trust yourself on giving value , customer insight is better than customer need.
4.Be alert about interest on debt ,business debt ( high interest) essentially will kill every possible way of being rich, instead it will drag you down the road of no return.its 100 times better to get VC fundin or investor money than business debt.VC will stop you before it's too late.
LESSON ....take business debt only from banks if it's low interest, then investor money. Ideal is do business with customer money if you are in software. Get pre- sales before you make, it's tough but it works.
5.Indecision killed most of the profit for us,we were two people protecting each other back and it doesn't help, when you are in such impossible situation and indecisive,we should have closed the business 2 years earlier. It would have saved us a lot money and time.
6. Always have 3 extra advisers on board if you are just two co-founders....to get a perspective otherwise emotions run high and it will be huge drain on the company.
Honestly it's her belief in me which bought us back together, I just gave up unable to handle stress from so many dimensions, financial, personal and friends turning soar.
Not able to give time to her , I felt I might destroy myself or her permanently if I hanged around the relationship, it was becoming extremely stressful to handle her and my debt.
So I requested her to let me go and allow me to focus on clearing the debt.
Also I guess the break helped her see me in different light when she was away from me. I just melted to my gf waiting for me 3 long years. I said yes got married in 3 months.
I am incredibly thankful for my parents to keep supporting me with all their might and it's beautiful....that I was born to such family where they go to any extent when rubber meets the road.
Wow nice insight, I am going to try a protype, where a deaf look at the person on the retina or glass, he can see what he is talking...that's beautiful and amazing. Yes I love transcense , if they can do good and i believe a retina display is must for deaf and dump, suddenly imagine their world coming alive , where they can experience sound , on retina or glass, it's beautiful real work.
Hence we are in the dinosaurs land.Earth belong to dinosaurs... Longest survived mamals.