Liberal cosmopolitan cities can thrive as a subculture society. Not going against each other is the real meaning of tolerance–liking, approving, or supporting is not necessary.
Geographic sorting between fractured and non-fractured is dangerous. One group of people believes there is still a nation-state.
The urban-rural divide in political and nationalistic lines is clear in many countries. In countries with strong religious/conservative urban/modern populations like the US[1], Iran, Turkey it can become very problematic. Iran is probably closest to the civil war due to this fractionalization.
Hanson’s model is an ecological model. It assumes that modeled entities don’t reflect the model and respond to it. With intelligent agents simple ecological modelling may not work. You need to use game theory and strategic thinking.
Assuming intelligent aliens, they know this model.
Assuming stable state alien civilizations, they have countermeasures.
Grabby Aliens might discover immune system against cancer-like civilizations growing without limit. It should hit them early before they are metastasized.
Grabby Aliens might foresee immune system even before they encounter resistance. They might try stealthy expansion, gradual probing first strategy, or modify their behavior in order to survive, .... and so on.
> It should hit them early before they are metastasized. They might try stealthy expansion, gradual probing first strategy, or modify their behavior in order to survive
This essentially is the Dark Forest hypothesis explanation for the Fermi Paradox. Civilizations work to avoid drawing attention to themselves because might be exterminated as potentially cancerous if detected
This is a great post, and i'm a huge fan of Glen Weyl, but Glen Weyl is the biggest purveyor of illegible-to-nontechnical-people technocratic ideas i've ever seen. I think his ideas are great and interesting, but I don't really understand on what level he views himself as separate and distinct from the rest of technocracy.
Every Kurzweil's prediction that came true is riding on the advances with semiconductors and networking. Even many of the true predictions are 'on the way' in the sense that they exist but the impact for the society is not there.
Only 2 of them rely on advances in machine learning (real-time translation of foreign languages, personal assistant).
Most of these are consumer tech or interaction with computer advances. Two predictions about education are nice.
All predictions about advances in biotech, medicine, nanotech, etc. have failed.
The problem with medical predictions is that everybody wants to live forever, so of course he tried to rush it a little bit compared to what's realistic, so that rejuvenation can happen before he dies.
At the same time we have a small experiment that successfully made 9 people younger using growth hormone therapy, so we know that there are targets that work in human, we just need to decrease the side effects significantly (which can sadly take 20 years realistically, as experiments are extremely slow and expensive compared to running an A/B test on a web site).
Seems to be the primary reason we age is dna damage. The first order effect is cancer, and the second order effect is that the body engages various cancer prevention strategies like senescence.
There are some other ways in which we accumulate damage, such as scar tissue, and increasing amounts of embedded foreign bodies. But not nearly as important as dna damage.
For this reason, I see crispr as the only path that could lead to immortality, and frozen stem cells as the most likely way to stall until that happens.
According to the Hallmarks of Aging paper DNA inside the nucleus is relatively stable, and the epigenetic material (i.e. DNA methylation) is a much better predictor of aging, as the proteins can't be transcribed if the DNA is methylated at those parts.
That's why is such a big thing that reversing methylation already happened in humans, as it means that the human body already knows how to regenerate itself (just like other animals), we just don't yet know how to turn on the regeneration pathways safely.
Good selection. 'Return from the Stars' is more relevant today than it was when it was written. Its a story about sociocultural evolution and Lem clearly has a deep insight.
Return from the stars is my favorite. In a some sense it is still about how to deal aliens that we cannot understand, it is just the aliens is future society.
> I realized that the world in which Hillary won wouldn't be a happy world either. Because all of the drivers of the stress we feel today — minus one — would still be very much be present."
TV show The Good Fight Season 4, Episode 1 "The Gang Deals with Alternate Reality has brilliant dark humor take on alternate reality where Hillary Clinton won the election.
spoiler alert
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(spoiler: Liberal lawyer Diane wakes up in alternate reality where Trump lost, but #MeeToo did not happen. She is representing Harvey Weinstein who is big donor for liberal causes and connections to the WH)
> (spoiler: Liberal lawyer Diane wakes up in alternate reality where Trump lost, but #MeeToo did not happen. She is representing Harvey Weinstein who is big donor for liberal causes and connections to the WH)
that's eerily close to current reality. (#MeToo only when politically expedient; Weinstein's damage control advisor is now a senior campaign adviser to a 'liberal' contender for the WH)
What is more immediate problem to solve: AI-to-Zuck or AI+Zuck alignment?
1) AI-to-Zuck alignment problem: Align AI to it's master(s).
2) AI+Zuck alignment problem: Align AI and it's master(s) to the rest of the humanity.
Zuck is just stand-in variable name for any tech billionaire CEO, corporation or governing body, could be people running OpenAI, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, China or Pentagon. 2) seems like the problem for humanity and 1) as the problem for Zuck.
> Zuck is just stand-in variable name for any (...)
Very badly chosen variable name, because it singles out one special case instead of reflecting the broader concept, which could confuse other devs picking up from here.
It's like defining a variable that stands for "vegetable" and naming it "carrot".
The book 'The Space Merchants' (1952) from Frederik Pohl and Cyril M. Kornbluth describes this type world.
World is run by ad companies (FB, Google,...) who select political leaders. People have to be careful on the street not to be trapped by highly aggressive ads.
Imagine a sci-fi story where you encounter human settlement that consumes solvent that is known to causes violence and accidents and is addictive carcinogen. The inhabitants use various methods to add little taste into it, bottle it into fancy bottles. Sophisticated solvent enthusiasts recognize different tastes and treat solvent fruit juices as the highest form of sophisticated hedonism.
Alcohol as a solvent is very similar to many inhalants as a drug. Closer to paint thinner than nitrous oxide. Similar cultural affection to hallucinogens, pot or even pure methamphetamines would be less harmful.
Some things are hard to perceive odd when it's everyday phenomenon. Women wearing high-heels is be another very odd cultural artifact.
State anything without context an it will sound weird.
Imagine a sci fi story where people stare into a glowing rectangular box for hours on end per day. There are whole industries surrounding the production of these glowing rectangles, and the people who are particularly good at changing the colors get paid far more than anybody else. Major efforts by the academic and altruistic class have been made to provide glowing squares to people who are starving to death, thinking that the inedible glowing squares might cause them to grow food.
Paraphrased meme I saw on social media yesterday: Hipster mad that publication used a picture of him to show that all hipsters look alike eventually realizes that it was not a picture of him.
> similar cultural affection to hallucinogens, pot or even pure methamphetamines would be less harmful
As someone who lived in a region with heavy meth use, I can tell you that I would much rather deal with drunk people than meth heads. Also, your sentences before this one don't make any sense, "alcohol as a solvent is very similar to many inhalants as a drug" what does that even mean?
> Imagine a sci-fi story where you encounter human settlement that consumes solvent
In your sci-fi story you forgot to mention that this solvent people drink also tastes very good, produces a sense of euphoria, lowers social inhibitions and reduces stress.
> Women wearing high-heels is be another very odd cultural artifact
No, same as your sci-fi story it would not. The reasons behind high heels are sad and ridiculous, but rather obvious. High heels make you look taller, give more definition to your legs and make you look a bit helpless and fragile. All of this is in tune with making females look more attractive in a male dominated society.
Methamphetamines were used legally long time before they became illegal. Paul Erdős was probably the most famous (amphetamine and methylphenidate) user. Using meth when studying was also common.
Methamphetamine derivatives have reentered the society in the form Adderall and other drugs.
Nitpick: Invented in the 19th century. Mass manufactured for OTC self-administration from 1921 onward. At least in Germany, available OTC for the next 70ish years. Became prescription-only in 1988, became banned from prescribing in 2008 -- i.e. it's been legal a lot longer than it's been illegal.
Not suggesting it can be used for recreational purposes without likely winding up causing more harm than alcohol, but:
Meth (actual meth, not a different amphetamine) can be prescribed. It's typically under the brand name Desoxyn in the US. There's people who take it for ADHD. It's not really all that different from the rest of the stimulants prescribed for that purpose when used as directed and in an appropriate dose.
As with many things, the benefit/harm relationship is highly related to dose, as well as the rest of the lifestyle associated with it.
I knew this crazy kid in college who purchased pure methamphetamine off the dark web to use as a study aid. He is currently pursuing his doctorate at one of the best medical schools in the world
I find it completely odd-less, in a life filled with so much pain and meaningless-ness is the ones trying to bury their sorrows into alcohol and drugs and other ways to trick their brains (e.g adrenaline) that I find the most relatable.
High heels make sense if you're on horseback with stirrups all day. Everything since then is social signalling based upon the former high status of cavalry, the wealth to own a horse, or the wealth to not need to wear practical footwear.
Mind you, buying shoes that don't have at least a vestigial heel is pretty hard. A whole society that intentionally damages it body mechanics...
High heels forces a posture similar to human lordosis behavior and is therefore very attractive to men, so it isn't that strange for women to wear high heels.
Geographic sorting between fractured and non-fractured is dangerous. One group of people believes there is still a nation-state.
The urban-rural divide in political and nationalistic lines is clear in many countries. In countries with strong religious/conservative urban/modern populations like the US[1], Iran, Turkey it can become very problematic. Iran is probably closest to the civil war due to this fractionalization.
[1] https://www.niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Wi...